Benitez faces unenviable task at Inter

Soccer Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Rafael Benitez era at Inter Milan got off to a good start this past Saturday, as the Spaniard claimed his first piece of silverware in a 3-1 win over Roma in the Italian Super Cup.

Benitez will have the chance to add another trophy to the cabinet on Friday, when the Nerazzurri faces Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup, a match that pits the Champions League champions, Inter Milan, against Europa League winners Atletico.

However, Benitez is only in position to win that title because of the work done by previous Inter boss Jose Mourinho, a fact that the Special One was all too happy to point out.

In fact, the two longtime rivals have had a nice little verbal sparring match going on since last season ended, with Benitez claiming that Mourinho is not the right man for the Real Madrid job that he currently holds, while Mourinho has made it quite clear how large of a shadow he has left behind at Inter.

The two have had their share of battles over the years, with Benitez and his Liverpool team twice eliminating Mourinho's Chelsea in the semifinals of the Champions League.

But things have changed dramatically in the past few years, with Benitez wearing out his welcome at Anfield, while all Mourinho did last season was help Inter become the first Italian team to ever win the treble, claiming the Serie A title, Coppa Italia and Champions League in the same season.

So it is ironic that Benitez would be the man to replace Mourinho at Inter, placing himself firmly in the shadow of a man whom he used to hold the upper hand on.

Inter president Massimo Moratti believes that Benitez is one of the few men who is able to take the place of Mourinho, although that still remains to be seen.

"Only someone like Benitez could take the place of a coach like Mourinho," Moratti told Corriere dello Sport.

"I know Benitez has a good record against Jose Mourinho. That's a sign he does his research, works well, and above all does not get the big games wrong.

"It is also important that he has already made his mark in Europe. We want to achieve more in this area."

While it's true that Benitez has had European success, winning the UEFA Cup with Valencia as well as reaching the final of the Champions League on two occasions with Liverpool, he was never able to duplicate that kind of success to the league with the Reds.

Liverpool consistently finished behind Chelsea in the Premiership table while Mourinho was there, and now that the Special One has raised the bar even higher at Inter, there is a distinct possibility that Benitez will once again come up short.

He inherits an Inter side that is nearly the same team as the one that finished last season, minus talented but troubled striker Mario Balotelli, making Inter once again an overwhelming favorite to win the league as well as the Coppa Italia.

Inter is among the favorites in the Champions League, but no team has retained the title of European champions since AC Milan in 1989 and 1990, and with heavyweight sides like Barcelona and Mourinho's Real Madrid among others, winning that competition again is not likely.

Basically, if Inter fails to win another treble - which is about as likely as Benitez and Mourinho sitting down to Christmas dinner together - the first season of Benitez at Inter will be viewed as a step in the wrong direction.

During his time at Inter, Mourinho clashed with everyone from rival coaches to media members as well as the football federation itself, so that is one area that Benitez can possibly do better than his nemesis.

But this is not a popularity contest, and once Benitez slips up for the first time, those same media members will likely be the first ones in line to offer up criticism about how Benitez is no Mourinho.

At Inter, there is a very large shadow indeed.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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