Braves' bats hope to break out in middle test with Phils

Baseball Betting Lines

05/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Injuries to a number of key regulars have rendered the Atlanta Braves' offense punchless over the last few games, a trend the slumping club would like to end in this afternoon's divisional showdown with the National League East-leading Philadelphia Phillies from Citizens Bank Park.

After failing to record a hit off Washington's Scott Olsen until the eighth inning of Thursday's 3-2 loss to the Nationals, the Braves' bats were stymied by Phillies' graybeard Jamie Moyer in last night's opener of this three-game series. The 47-year-old spun a dazzling two-hitter to become the oldest player in major league history to throw a shutout in Philadelphia's 7-0 triumph.

Moyer (4-2) struck out five without a walk and needed only 105 pitches to record the 10th shutout of his long and storied career. At 47 years and 170 days old, the veteran lefty broke Hall of Famer Phil Niekro's mark of being the eldest pitcher to blank the opposition over nine innings. Niekro was 46 years and 188 days of age when he threw his final shutout.

"Outstanding control and command on both sides of the plate," said Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel about Moyer. "He says if he can put the ball where he wants to do he can get them out, and that was a great example of it right there. [The Braves] hit a few balls hard but not very many, he was just that good."

Jayson Werth gave Moyer all the support he would need with a three-run homer in the third inning, with Raul Ibanez and Wilson Valdez each delivering two- RBI singles in the fifth to stake the Phils to a 7-0 advantage.

All seven runs came against Braves starter Derek Lowe (4-3), who was tagged for 11 hits in a five-inning stint.

Atlanta has now lost 10 of its last 11 on the road and fell to 4-13 as the visitor this season, tied with Baltimore for the worst record in the majors.

The Braves did play Friday's test without rookie sensation Jason Heyward (strained groin) and All-Star catcher Brian McCann (eye problems) and were forced to place shortstop Yunel Escobar on the disabled list with a groin injury earlier in the week. McCann is expected to return to the lineup for this afternoon's contest, while Heyward, the team's leader with eight homers and 26 RBI, is considered day-to-day.

Atlanta has also had to deal with injuries on the pitching end, with valued starter Jair Jurrjens recently sent to the 15-day DL after injuring his hamstring in an April 29 outing at St. Louis. As a result, Kris Medlen will make his initial start of the season this afternoon in Jurrjens' place.

Medlen has pitched exclusively in middle relief for the Braves this year and compiled a 1-1 record with a 2.55 earned run average in 12 appearances out of the pen. The sophomore right-hander struggled when used as a starter as a rookie last year, going 1-2 with a poor 6.38 ERA in four starts and walking 11 batters in only 18 1/3 innings of work.

This will be Medlen's first-ever start against the Phillies, but he's faced them twice already in relief this season and seven times over the past two years. The 24-year-old has recorded a 6.75 ERA lifetime versus Philadelphia and allowed two runs in 2 1/3 innings during his two previous matchups in this series in 2010.

Joe Blanton makes his second start of the year for Philadelphia this afternoon, having spent the season's first month on the disabled list with a strained left oblique. The stocky right-hander pitched well for the most part in Monday's debut, despite being saddled with a loss against St. Louis.

Blanton held the Cardinals to one run over the first six innings but faltered in the seventh, when he was charged with three more runs allowed and failed to finish out the frame. For the game, the 29-year-old gave up 10 hits over 6 2/3 innings and struck out four while walking one.

The University of Kentucky product is no stranger to the Braves, having made five starts against Atlanta a year ago. Blanton was 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA in those tests, with the lone win coming at Citizens Bank Park on August 30 by virtue of yielding just one run and three hits over seven innings.

Philadelphia puts a streak of four straight wins on the line today and has gone 6-2 thus far on a 10-game homestand. The two-time defending NL champs will be without their dugout leader this afternoon, however, as Manuel will miss the game due to a personal matter. He's expected to be back behind the bench for Sunday's finale.

Atlanta lost two of three to the Phillies at Turner Field last month, but did win five of the nine 2009 encounters between the teams held in Philadelphia.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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