Get on Board with Untested Pitchers

Baseball Betting Lines

05/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When it comes to wagering on baseball, gamblers usually shy away from the unknown. It's easy to back the likes of Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay, but putting your money on rookies is another story.

However, don't take these inexperienced pitchers lightly. Even though most bettors have never seen them on the mound, it also stands to reason the opposition hasn't either. And that leads to a very important angle - never let a great opportunity to make money pass you by.

Some of these young pitchers have already become key members in their club's rotation while others have been used as spot starters due to injury. Whatever the case may be, their mound success has translated to a lot of green in one's wallet if he/she has been paying attention.

All in all, nine pitchers with fewer than five career starts (and less than four years experience) have combined for an incredible +1,147 units in a little over one month's worth of action. Three of the nine stand out above the rest since they have accounted for 15 of the 24 starts, but don't shy away from the others since they've accumulated a bankroll of over $400.

THE BIG THREE

The first of the five-start hurlers is Jaime Garcia. The Cardinals' fifth starter is 3-1 this season with an amazing 1.13 ERA. More importantly, since he's behind the likes of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright in the rotation, he's flown well below the radar even in his last two starts.

Garcia and the Cards were only -113 favorites at Philadelphia earlier in the week, against a pitcher in Joe Blanton who was making his first start of the year. St. Louis roughed up Blanton for 10 hits and four runs in 6 2/3 innings en route to the 6-3 road victory.

In his prior outing, Garcia and two relievers shut out the Braves, 6-0 - his second straight amazing performance at Busch Stadium. Earlier in the season, Garcia held the Mets scoreless on just one hit through seven innings.

It's still early in the season but the kid picked in the 22nd round back in 2005 has given up only five hits and zero runs in 14 home frames. Garcia is only +128 units in five starts, but until opposing hitters get the best of him, look for that total to rise in the coming months.

Cincinnati's Mike Leake came into the big leagues off one of the finest college seasons in recent memory. The righthander finished his junior year at Arizona State 16-1 with a 1.71 ERA, becoming the first starter in Pac-10 history to win back-to-back Pitcher of the Year awards.

He also damaged opposing hurlers his final two seasons, batting .325 with 15 RBI in 80 at-bats.

Stephen Strasburg received almost all the attention at last year's draft, but Leake has gotten the jump on his counterpart with five starts already on his resume. The 22-year-old has won just two of those outings but the Reds are 4-1 in those games. Furthermore, Leake has yet to lose and his ERA is a healthy 2.94.

Control was an issue early in the year with 12 walks in his first 13 2/3 innings. However, the California native has gained a better command of his pitches of late, going 20 frames with just four bases-on-balls. Leake is also helping himself at the plate, batting .364 with four hits in 11 at-bats.

All that success explains why the eighth player selected in last year's draft is +314 units.

The final starter of the bunch hurls for another team from the Midwest.

Cleveland's Mitch Talbot has not received any of the accolades heaped upon either Garcia or Leake, but has been even more effective when it comes to the gambling side of baseball.

The former Tampa Bay pitcher started slowly in 2010, allowing four runs in a 4-2 loss at Detroit but since then, he's reeled off three wins in four starts with a 2.15 ERA. That success has his backers holding $364 since his initial start on April 10.

SPOT STARTERS COMING THROUGH IN THE CLUTCH

There have been nine other starts this season from six pitchers with fewer than five career starts and less than four years experience. What might be a surprising statistic to some is that three of the six hurlers came through with victories, while two others helped their team to "W's" even though each failed to pick up the win.

Luis Atilano leads the bunch with two victories - both times as the underdog. The rookie stepped in when Jason Marquis went down with an elbow injury, and proceeded to win his first two big-league starts at +119 and +192 units.

On May 3, Cesar Valdez did the same in place of Kris Benson, giving up only one run in five innings as the Diamondbacks routed the Astros, 9-1.

One day earlier, Jhoulys Chacin allowed only one hit through seven frames, leading the Rockies past the Giants. Since Chacin squared off against Jonathan Sanchez and his 1.85 ERA, Colorado was +140 units...a nice score as a road underdog.

On May 1, Dodgers reliever Carlos Monasterios got the call in his first-ever start but was denied the victory since he was taken out after just four innings. Los Angeles knocked off the Pirates, 5-1 so even though Monasterios didn't get credit for the win, the bettors who backed Los Angeles were still rewarded with the victory.

This past Thursday night, another Dodgers rookie, John Ely, came close to picking up his first career victory, but Jonathan Broxton blew the save allowing Milwaukee to tie with two runs in the top of the ninth.

The hometown team had one more shot to break the tie and Andre Ethier came through with a walk-off grand slam home run, good for a 7-3 Dodgers win. Ely did not get credit for the "W" but once again, those who wagered on the Dodgers did.

The only starter of the six that failed to bring home the bacon was the Rockies' Esmil Rogers, who lost 6-1 as an underdog to Matt Cain and San Francisco.

Betting on the unknown might be a scary proposition, but it's been well worth it so far in 2010.

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

To bet on March Madness games this online sportsbook accepts credit cards

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