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08/05/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tom Glavine will once again shoot for career win No. 300 when he leads the New York Mets in the finale of a three-game series this evening against the Chicago Cubs at historic Wrigley Field.
Glavine owns 299 career victories and is just one win shy of becoming the 23rd pitcher to reach the illustrious plateau. He is 9-6 with a 4.38 ERA in 23 starts this season and 2-0 over the previous five trips to the mound.
The left-hander last toed the rubber on July 31 against Milwaukee and did not factor in the outcome. Glavine yielded just one run and two hits in six innings before the bullpen imploded for a 4-2 loss at Miller Park.
Glavine is 14-13 with six complete games (two shutouts) and a 3.64 earned run average in 34 career starts against the Cubs. He posted a no decision against the Cubs on May 14 this season, allowing four runs in six innings of a 5-4 victory at Shea Stadium.
Taking the ball for the Cubs on Sunday will be Glavine's former Atlanta teammate Jason Marquis, who is 8-6 with a 4.22 ERA over 22 starts this season.
Marquis owns a 2-1 record in his last three appearances, and defeated the Philadelphia Phillies his last time out on July 31. Marquis gave up three runs in six innings of a 7-3 victory at Wrigley Field. He is 6-2 in 12 home starts this season.
The right-hander is 5-4 with a 4.17 earned run average over 19 games (12 starts) in his career against the Mets. Marquis countered Glavine on May 14 and also did not record a decision. He yielded four runs through five innings of that 5-4 setback in Flushing, NY.
On Saturday, Jacque Jones collected three hits and knocked in a run as the Cubs used a six-run third inning to down the Mets, 6-2.
Ted Lilly pitched 7 2/3 strong innings, allowing two runs on seven hits for the Cubs, who ended a two-game slide. Lilly (12-5), who has won seven of his last eight starts, also struck out eight while walking one.
Mark DeRosa knocked in two runs in the victory for the Cubs, who trail Milwaukee by one game in the NL Central. The Brewers defeated the Phillies on Saturday night.
New York starter John Maine, who came into the game with wins in his last two starts, was roughed up for six runs on four hits in just 2 2/3 innings. Maine (12-6) also walked three, hit a batter and struck out one.
Moises Alou hit two home runs for the NL East-leading Mets, who had a three- game winning streak come to an end.
The Mets have won four of six this season from the Cubs and are 11-7 in the series since the since the start of the 2005 campaign. Last year, the Mets won two of three at Wrigley.
<< Astros send Albers against Olsen, Marlins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Right-hander Matt Albers gets his ninth start of the season
today when the Houston Astros complete a three-game weekend series with the
Florida Marlins at Dolphin Stadium.
A 24-year-old Houston native, Albers has mad
<< Surging Nats shoot for sixth straight win vs. Cardinals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Nationals will attempt to stretch their
season high winning streak to six games this afternoon, when they close out a
three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals at RFK Stadium.
Washington made
<< Rockies, Braves to play finale at Turner Field
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves will try to stay on the winning track
when they close out a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies today
from Turner Field.
Atlanta ended a two-game losing streak with Saturday's 6-4
<< Phillies look to bounce back in Milwaukee
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers shoot for a series
sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies when the two ballclubs wrap up a three-game
set this afternoon at Miller Park.
Milwaukee won Friday's opener by a 2-1 score bef
Marlins' Cabrera leaves game with elbow injury >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Florida Marlins third baseman Miguel Cabrera
left Sunday's game versus the Houston Astros in the third inning after getting
hit on the left elbow by a pitch from Matt Albers.
The 24-year old slugger was hi
Ochoa wins Women's British for first major >>
St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This time there would be no meltdown,
no miraculous shot from another player, no doubt about it.
Lorena Ochoa has her first major championship.
The Mexican star closed with a one-over 74 in the f
Reds-Pirates postponed >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sunday's game between the Cincinnati Reds
and Pittsburgh Pirates was postponed because of rain.
It has been rescheduled as part of a doubleheader for August 28 when the Reds
next visit PNC Park. The firs
Padres demote Hensley after giving up historic homer >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A day after becoming part of baseball
history, Clay Hensley is headed back to the minors. The San Diego Padres
optioned the 27-year-old right-hander to Triple-A Portland on Sunday.
Hensley surr
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Chiefs' Treen Green out for Sunday's game
How long Trent Green will remain sidelined is unknown. Coach Herm Edwards said Monday he will miss a second straight start Sunday when the Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers.
A two-time Pro Bowler, Green was going into a feet-first hook slide when he was knocked unconscious by a thunderous, head-snapping hit from Cincinnati's Robert Geathers.
Oddsmakers at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com currently have the Chiefs listed as 7-point favorites versus the 49ers.
The 49ers got beat by Philadelphia 38-24 as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Alex Smith completed 27-of-46 passes for 293 yards with a touchdown. Michael Robinson rushed for 29 yards and a pair of touchdowns on five carries.
The Chiefs lost 9-6 to Denver last week as an 11-point underdog. The combined score was well UNDER the posted over/under total (38).
Larry Johnson rushed for 126 yards on 27 carries. Damon Huard completed 17-of-23 passes for 133 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions.
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