Golf Tidbits: Too little, too late for PGA Tour?

Golf Betting Lines

09/02/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A week after Jim Furyk overslept and missed his pro-am tee time, the PGA Tour suspended its own rule that disqualifies a player for missing a pro-am.

But has the damage been done? Furyk would probably argue that it has.

We have all been there before. You wake up a few minutes after a final started, or 10 minutes before a job interview, or five minutes before you are supposed to be at work and the office is 20 minutes away.

It happened to Furyk last week. He was doomed by a dead cell phone battery and woke up less than 10 minutes before his scheduled pro-am tee time.

Furyk raced to the course and got there no more than five minutes after he was scheduled to tee off, but was deemed to have missed his tee time and disqualified.

"I overslept. I always use my phone as an alarm and it had no power this morning," Furyk explained.

After plenty of criticism over Furyk's disqualification, PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem suspended the rule for the remainder of the year. The rule that says players must compete in the pro-am to play in the tournament was originally put into place so that players couldn't just skip the pro-am for no reason.

But, as Phil Mickelson pointed out, the rule applies to only some of those entered in each week's tournament.

"The rule itself applies to only half the field. So if you're going to have a rule that does not apply to everybody, because not everybody played the pro- am, you cannot have it affect the competition," explained Mickelson. "It's got to be a different penalty. It can't be disqualification if it only applies to half the field.

"I cannot disagree with it more. I have no idea how the commissioner let this rule go through. It's ridiculous. I made my viewpoint very clear to him."

Strong words from the No. 2-ranked golfer in the world, who previously had a run-in with this rule himself. In 2007, Mickelson was stuck in Arkansas due to heavy rain and flooding. The airports around him were closed and he was unable to get to Texas for his pro-am tee time.

The tour made an accommodation for that, but if you're 10 minutes away catching some extra shut-eye as Furyk was, no dice. Not only are you out of the pro-am, you are disqualified from the tournament.

Furyk has made nearly $50 million in his career on the course. Being kicked out of an event with a $1.35 million first-place paycheck might not be a big deal for him. At the same time, missing the tournament did drop Furyk from third to eighth in the FedExCup playoff points standings. Entering this week's second playoff event, the Deutsche Bank Championship, Furyk is 2,246 points behind points-leader Matt Kuchar. If the disqualification ends up costing Furyk the top spot at the end of the FedExCup points race, there will be even more consternation, not least due to the $10 million first-place paycheck that comes with winning the trophy.

To his credit, Finchem heard the complaints and responded quickly. In a statement on Tuesday, Finchem called for the Player Advisory Council to evaluate the current pro-am regulations.

"Hereafter, should a player be late for his pro-am starting time, the situation will be handled as a matter of unbecoming conduct," said the commissioner's statement. "Such player will be required to participate in the remainder of the pro-am round and may be required to perform additional sponsor activity. A player who misses his pro-am obligation in its entirety will still be ruled ineligible for the tournament unless he has been excused in accordance with the provisions of the regulations."

The players realize the importance of the pro-ams. They get paired with three players that forked over a nice chunk of change - $8,500 or more in some cases - to have the chance to compete alongside the best players in the world.

No one ever knows what opportunities could arise from these pro-ams. There's a chance that a tour player could find a new sponsor for himself through a pro- am.

Mickelson had this one right. If the rule only applies to half the field, change it or get rid of it.

GOLF EN FUEGO

I've been golfing for nearly 25 years and have caddied for over 10. Suffice it to say, I've seen a lot of things on a golf course.

However, one thing happened last week that most people have never seen before. A golfer at Shady Canyon Golf Course in Irvine, Cal. sparked a fire with a single swing.

The poor soul has remained nameless, and who would want to be connected with that? Said player was hitting a shot out of the rough and clipped a rock with his swing.

The golf club/rock connection created a spark which lit the rough on fire.

Nearly 150 firefighters and 12 burned acres later, the fire was finally extinguished.

Who knows, maybe someone yelled 'Noonan' while the guy was swinging. Though in this case, he didn't hit his ball into the lumber yard - he burned it down.

MINI-TIDBITS

- At one point in his career, Matt Kuchar had just 10 top-10s in 149 starts. This year, he has 10 top-10s in 22 starts. He should be under consideration for PGA Tour player of the year.

- People always talk about golf being a gentlemen's sport which polices itself. Junior golfers are taught the rules growing up, and start policing themselves at a young age. Zach Nash, a 14-year-old in Wisconsin, disqualified himself after winning a recent tournament because he had too many clubs in his bag. He realized the mistake after the tournament and turned in his winning medal. He could have gotten away with it, but showed maturity beyond his years in giving up the victory.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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